Research Grants

Academic Paper Grant

 

Software Minds and Endogenous Growth

 

Research summary:

Economic growth has so far come from human minds.  But software minds, whether AIs or uploads, could substitute for humans in a wide range of economic activities, including the research and development that are essential to economic growth. They could be copied, accelerated, and improved by economic activity. So if we are to make economic growth models of such minds, we will need to use the theory of "endogenous growth", where technological progress depends on economic variables such as the total base of potential researchers and the fraction of output allocated to research. There is currently almost no overlap between the large literature on endogenous growth and the small literature on growth with software minds. This paper will review some existing literature and then explore its own models.

Prior related work:

Robin Hanson's "Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence".


Existing work on this project:

A rough draft (though with sections missing) already exists. However, the paper is in hiatus for lack of free researcher-hours. It also requires a few decisions as to the nature and complexity of the mathematical models to be described. Since much of the work has been done, we may get good risk reduction returns on hours by finishing this paper.

  

Target dates for:

Working paper (Posting a working paper on the SIAI website; circulating to related academics): 4 weeks after start date[1].

 

Journal submission: 12 weeks after start date.

 

Follow-up steps (Brainstorming, and drafting proposals for, any follow-up publications. Are there related research papers that should be considered?): 14 weeks after start date.

[1] The "starting date" is the date (guaranteed to be within six months of the receipt of grant money) when we have skilled people to allocate to the project.  Extra donations increase our base of skilled people and thereby increase the number of projects we can get to; the lagged start date allows us to find new people, bring them here, and train them.

 

Total Budget: $3,600

How research costs are estimated:

  • Person-months for research and writing: 1.5 (obtained by taking our standard estimate[1] of 4 person-months per journal paper, multiplying by 1.5 because doing mathematical modeling is more time-intensive than just writing text, but reducing the number to a quarter of its full value because most of the work has already been done).
  • Dollars per person-month[2]: $2,400.

[1] Our base estimate is 1.25 person-months per conference paper, and 3 per journal article, for an experienced full-time researcher. This estimate takes the planning fallacy, and the importance of an outside view in avoiding that fallacy, into account. While typical rates of article production by professors are extremely low, the distribution is strongly skewed towards research-oriented universities and departments, and informal surveys of researchers working on existential risks give data consistent with this estimate for full-time work required per paper. Visiting Fellows vary in their experience levels, so that mean productivity is expected to be lower, but a team mix can be selected to account for this.

[2] This billing rate reflects an estimate of financial outlays for SIAI to create the equivalent of one full-time skilled researcher-month, including stipend or hosting expenses, workspace, and administrative or management time, and other supporting expenses. Actual person-months may be greater or lower depending on the labor mix for a particular project, with shortfalls made up from general funds. This rate is not reflective of the money researchers could earn in the competitive labor market. Think of this as a matched donation. You donate the living expenses; our researchers donate the surplus value of their labor.



How this paper will help reduce existential risk:


Research benefits (What ideas will the paper explore?  How will that knowledge help with existential risk?):

  • The paper will explore economic models of takeoff speeds and mechanisms.  It will thereby attempt to translate the dynamics of AI growth into the language of economics, specifically that of endogenous growth models.  Translating existing questions across disciplines in this manner can often spark new insights by bringing a question into contact with an established but as yet untapped library of intuitions and predictive models.
  • Accurately modeling AI takeoff speeds and mechanisms is critical to understanding what kind of technological singularity may occur and what types of safety mechanisms may be effective.


Influence benefits (What target audience will the paper impact, how?  How will that impact help with existential risk?):

  • Publication of this paper would help build an academic consensus that hard takeoff scenarios are at least plausible. This would aid good decision-making, specifically by making it clear that hard takeoff scenarios need to be considered, and that safety under a hard takeoff scenario requires planning well in advance of the actual takeoff.


Human capital benefits, or network benefits (Will writing this paper help new Visiting Fellows become familiar with key research domains?  Will it help create relationships with outside co-authors?  Will it give folks interested in existential risk entry into new communities where valuable contacts may be found?):

  • Writing the paper will help Visiting Fellows become acquainted with growth economics.
  • It may also create the opportunity for SIAI people to come into contact with economists and with other academics interested in forecasting the pace of technological development.




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