Singularity Institute

[1] The "starting date" is the date (guaranteed to be within six months of the receipt of grant money) when we have skilled people to allocate to the project.  Extra donations increase our base of skilled people and thereby increase the number of projects we can get to; the lagged start date allows us to find new people, bring them here, and train them.

Total budget:  $5,960

• Conference fees, air travel, motel: $1,400

• Costs for researcher time: $4,560

How research costs are estimated:

• Person-months for research and writing: 1.9 (obtained by taking our standard estimate[1] of 1.25 person-months per conference paper and multiplying by 1.5, since this paper requires gathering historical data).

• Dollars required to support one skilled full time researcher-month[2]: $2,400

[1] Our base estimate is 1.25 person-months per conference paper, and 3 per journal article, for an experienced full-time researcher. This estimate takes the planning fallacy, and the importance of an outside view in avoiding that fallacy, into account. While typical rates of article production by professors are extremely low, the distribution is strongly skewed towards research-oriented universities and departments, and informal surveys of researchers working on existential risks give data consistent with this estimate for full-time work required per paper. Visiting Fellows vary in their experience levels, so that mean productivity is expected to be lower, but a team mix can be selected to account for this.

[2] This billing rate reflects an estimate of financial outlays for SIAI to create the equivalent of one full-time skilled researcher-month, including stipend or hosting expenses, workspace, and administrative or management time, and other supporting expenses. Actual person-months may be greater or lower depending on the labor mix for a particular project, with shortfalls made up from general funds. This rate is not reflective of the money researchers could earn in the competitive labor market. Think of this as a matched donation. You donate the living expenses; our researchers donate the surplus value of their labor. 

How this paper will help with existential risk:

Research benefits (What ideas will the paper explore?  How will that knowledge help reduce existential risk?)

• This paper will explore predictions of future technological development in the language of Bayesian probability theory. Better representations of our uncertainty on timelines will help us to optimize existential risk reduction efforts for the full range of plausible outcomes.

Influence benefits(What target audience will the paper impact, how?  How will that impact help with existential risk?)

• The paper will serve as a first attempt at explaining why, without significant specific further knowledge, we should have wide distributions around the arrival of AI, not overlooking either the possibility of AI arriving late or the possibility of AI arriving early.  It may thereby:

  • Increase the number of parties who believe that near-term AI is plausible enough to warrant risk analysis; and

  • Increase the extent to which interested outside parties use accurate probability distributions in existing risk mitigation efforts.

Human capital benefits, or network benefits (Will writing this paper help new Visiting Fellows become familiar with key research domains?  Will it help create relationships with outside co-authors?  Will it give folks interested in existential risk entry into new communities where valuable contacts may be found?)

• The paper may increase contact with others interested in technological forecasting.